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BUT WILL Obama WIN?

Rasmussen’s Daily Presidential Tracking poll is probably the most accurate and balanced of all the national polls at this point. Barak Obama still holds on to a single digit lead over McCain. Go to http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll .

The interesting thing about Senator Obama’s campaign is that he appears to have inherited Ronald Reagan’s Teflon effect. No scandalous revelation has any lasting effect, because his personal likeability quotient insulates him in much the same that worked for the former president.

The junior Senator from Illinois has begun tacking to the center on key issues. While the process has depressed his lead, almost to a statistical tie, it is clearly a winning strategy. His own supporters will remain passionate while the nervous middle will be moderately reassured.

I have not the slightest idea how the race will come out, but three things strongly operate in Obama’s favor at the moment: (1) He seems to be heading into the Democratic Convention with a stable, though reduced lead; (2) that convention will give him a several point bounce in the polls; (3) Obama clearly wants to win the presidency more than he wants to cater to the left wing of his own party.

In the end it will come down to trust. Too close to call…

JBG