OBAMA’S TRAINING WHEELS

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TUESDAY

OBAMA’S TRAINING WHEELS

As I write this, the Obama express appears headed to the White House, leaving the behind Bush presidency - and any political figure tainted by association - as road kill.

Whatever happens with respect to the bailout of the US credit market over the next few days, it seems highly probable that the credit liquidity crisis will lead to a correction cascade that will depress growth and incomes, while increasing unemployment for at least three consecutive quarters. In other words, a recession seems far more likely than not. [My additional commentary on the credit meltdown can be found on the “Out-Lawyer’s blog” at http://www.jaygaskill.com/blog1/ .]

If Senator Obama is elected, he will be one of the nation’s most eloquent presidents and one of the least experienced. But circumstances will have sharply curtailed his freedom of action.

Adding roughly a trillion dollars to debt, facing a recession that requires the stimulus of tax cuts and – if possible – more stimulus spending – will leave the new president almost no budget discretion. It will be nickel and dime liberalism because all the really big money will have already been taken off the table.

On the foreign policy-national security side you can be assured that our enemies will move quickly to exploit perceived weakness. Senator Obama has already pledged to reinforce our military presence in Afghanistan and he is constrained by military logistics and other practical considerations from simply dropping the effort to stabilize Iraq.

And Iran surely will seize the moment to press forward to attain deadly nuclear power status. A weak president Obama might not last out even one term if things get bad enough. He is not likely to let that happen. It is a safe bet that code Pink will be disappointed in him.

TRAINING WHEELS RE DESIGNED PREVENT THE NEW OPERATOR FROM FALLING TOO FAR OR TOO HARD. OUR NEXT PRESIDENT WILL BE HEMMED IN ON BOTH SIDES. AND DRIVING OFF A CLIFF WILL TAKE MORE THAN FOUR YEARS.

I hear people in both parties complaining about the quality of the two candidates, and I hear people in the center expressing praise for both. In fact, it is still too early to count out Senator McCain for this very reason – the middle voters who decide elections like this one are fickle. Their volatility has been on display in the polls for weeks now. No one anticipated the credit meltdown crisis. No one will have anticipated the next.

But one thing should be noted. The fringe left and its media allies have succeeded all to well in destroying a sitting president, only to now lament his failure to lead when no one else was available. Speaker Pelosi has fully participated in the leadership vacuum.

We only have one president at a time. We are now paying the price for unbridled partisanship and the politics of presidential destruction.

Let’s try not to do that again.

JBG