POWELL ENDORSES OBAMA, AND...
SUNDAY
Noon Pacific Time
As posted on the Policy Think Site - www.jaygaskill.com and “the Out-Lawyer's Blog”.
Copyright 2008 by Jay B. Gaskill, Attorney at Law. Contact: law@jaygaskill.com
POWELL ENDORSES OBAMA
Colin Powell has ably served two republican administrations -- the administration of “W's” father, and as Secretary of State at the time of the current president's run up to the Iraq invasion. Rumors of Mr. Powell's possible defection to the Obama camp have been circulating for weeks.
Today, on Meet the Press, the General dropped the bomb.
Given Secretary Powell's disaffection with the Bush administration, I find his decision unsurprising. Had it come earlier in the campaign, it might have had a muted impact, say, on the level of Senator Lieberman's endorsement of John McCain. Had it taken place when foreign policy and national security considerations were not swamped by the economic crisis, it might have amounted to a critical boost to Senator Obama in an area of acknowledged weakness.
So the good news, bad news joke for the McCain camp is this: The good news is that the Powell endorsement isn't a big deal, because the bad news is that the Obama didn't need the help.
The Rasmussen Tracking poll (which now folds in “leaners”) shows Obama's support has remained very stable at about 50% against McCain's 45% for about 10 days. This is well beyond the margin of error.
Note that other polls have different numbers. Zogby, for example, released a poll today (10-19) in which Obama was only 47.8% to McCain’s 46.1%. Go to this link: http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1597 . I suspect that Rasmussen’s policy of including the “leaners” masks the volatility reported on some other polls.
The McCain campaign has gone from “too close to call” to “still competitive” to “miracle needed”. I don't think that the 8% or so voters who harbor doubts about the junior senator from Illinois are going to suddenly break for McCain without a precipitating factor. And for the life of me, I am unable to imagine just what that could be.
Joe the Plumber has given the McCain campaign an opening to discuss taxes, an area of Obama vulnerability, but that was good for about two news cycles. Significantly, the Joe opportunity dropped into the campaign from the air, so to speak – you can't plan those things.
I am reminded of an anecdote from a Civil War Cabinet meeting. President Lincoln and General Grant were arguing about moving a particular general into major theater of battle. After some discussion, President Lincoln interrupted: “Grant, I don't give a damn about all that. Just tell me one thing: Is this man lucky?”
To be elected POTUS, John McCain needs to get lucky... damn lucky.
JBG
