Iran and the World: Averting Disaster
IRAN AND THE WORLD: AVERTING DISASTER
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JUNE 6, 2007
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All the Prior “Human Conspiracy” Posts, from June, 2006, though June 6, 2007, are now archived in chronological order. You can visit (and search them) only by going to the following link: http://www.jaygaskill.com/BLOGARCHIVE.htm .
IRAN AND THE WORLD: AVERTING DISASTER
By
Jay B. Gaskill
Printable Version of this post in pdf is at http://jaygaskill.com/Iranpost62807.pdf
Ultimately only one of three things will happen:
(1) Iran’s hegemonic nuclear ambitions are abandoned under duress;
(2) Iran is disarmed militarily;
(3) Iran succeeds and – inevitably - there is a nuclear catastrophe in the Middle East, killing millions of innocents, and forever altering the course of history.
The lovers of peace should be working for (1) and (2) in that order.
As the West wakes up to the current reality, outcome (3) will be unacceptable, hopefully in prospect as opposed to retrospect!
Regime change, in the sense that a pluralistic, Western-friendly government “emerges” in Iran just in time to avert disaster did not make my list for three reasons:
(a) It is too implausible.
(b) The time frame is too short.
(c) The military actions we might take to facilitate this outcome will probably backfire.
I have previously described a strategy of inflicting “duress” on Iran. I described it as “stepping on Iran’s jugular”. It might work because it just might be taking place right now.
Here is a link to my earlier my piece: http://www.jaygaskill.com/ModestProposal.pdf .
NOW CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING DEVELOPMENTS:
Reuters:
“Iran's 450,000 bpd Abadan refinery, the country's largest, was shut down for maintenance in November 2006, according to Reuters. One 60,000 bpd crude distillation unit will be down. Abadan produces fuels for domestic use and exports some heavier products.”
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Note: The current regime has competence and funding problems.
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DUBAI (Reuters):
“Sanctions and insufficient funding are thwarting Iran's ambitious plans to nearly double domestic oil refinery capacity to end its dependency on expensive imported fuels.
“Iran has the world's second largest oil reserves but lacks the refinery capacity to meet its own transport fuel demand. OPEC's second largest crude producer imports around 40 percent of its gasoline needs, which it then heavily subsidizes.”
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The Economist
May 30th 2007
IRAN
Real GDP growth by year -- (%) 7.5, 7.1, 5.1, 4.4, 4.3
Origins of gross domestic product 2004 (a) % of total
Components of gross domestic product 2004 (a) % of total Oil 10.4
Net external sector -7.1
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Note: Oil exports are a serious problem for Iran at the moment. The hegemony machine need foreign exchange cash but the oil exports are lagging and the domestic pressures are mounting.
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The Wall Street Journal
By JAY SOLOMON and NEIL KING JR.
June 25, 2007
“WASHINGTON -- As the U.S. and Iran consider a second round of talks aimed at stabilizing Iraq, Tehran is calling for the U.S. to stop actions it claims are aimed at stirring trouble within Iran. …
“Iran has listed other issues it wants addressed, as the U.S. pushes it to help tame sectarian violence and weapons proliferation in Iraq. These include an end to Washington's alleged support of ethnic insurgent groups, which Tehran views as part of a broader destabilization campaign against the regime of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. …
“The Iranian government is facing mounting public unrest at home amid signs that the economy is suffering. International financial sanctions pushed by the U.S. in response to Tehran's nuclear activities could further damage the country's economy and Mr. Ahmadinejad's political standing.”
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The Bangkok Post
“Iran riots over petrol rationing
“Teheran (dpa) - Riots broke out in Iran in the early hours of Wednesday and some petrol stations were set on fire in the capital Teheran following the government's decision to ration petrol.
“According to local press reports, at least five petrol stations in Teheran were set on fire in protest against the rationing. Some banks and supermarkets were also reportedly robbed.
“Witnesses said the people also shouted slogans against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who is considered as the initiator of the petrol rationing.
“The Iranian parliament swiftly reacted to the riots and summoned the oil and interior ministers to investigate the incidents in a secret session.
“The oil ministry announced via state-television that necessary grounds would be prepared to prevent any petrol problems for the people. The ministry's promises were, however, based on establishing new oil refineries in the coming years.”
As of Wednesday, Iran, one of the world's largest oil producers, started rationing petrol nationwide.
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Iran is worried and stressed. Is the administration just lucky -- or is it implementing a plan?
Stay tuned....
JBG
