IS OBAMA WEARING THIN?
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Note - I hope the winner of the presidential race will meeet the expectations of most of those who vote for him, but I would'nt bet the farm on that prospect. I have the impression that two decent men are in this race and that, at this point, either might win. I'm not going to use this space to join either campaign. JBG
"July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Middle Eastern and European leaders are lining up to hear what Barack Obama has to say on his seven- country tour this week. For his presidential campaign, what he says on the trip may not be as important as the photos and videos it produces."
Posted Monday, July 21.
Is Barak Obama Wearing Thin?
In politics, images are often more powerful than words, sometimes unexpectedly. Recall the image of candidate Michael Dukakis on top of a tank during the failed campaign against Bush I – it was a silly moment because the picture simply didn’t fit the moment or the man. And recall the image of candidate John Kerry windsurfing in a wet suit during the campaign against Bush II – it was a silly picture because it did fit the moment and the man.
Is the junior senator from Illinois a foreign policy/national security lightweight?
His trip abroad has generated words and images. Is it just my imagination? The images of Obama walking next to the Iraqi and Afghani leaders seemed to diminish him - like a skinny kid playing soldier among the tough guys. Barak Obama is a very thin man. When dressed up in a loosely fitting suit, highlighting his skinny neck, in the photos placing Barak among hard, swarthy, stocky men, he seemed … out of place.
And his face - sometimes so messianic and inspiring to his followers - showed differently in this tough, real world setting. His photographed expressions, especially when disconnected from that famous oratorical speaking voice, were almost ethereal and - dare I suggest it - less than “presidential”.
Yes, I know. Images are sometimes unfair. So is life.
But images sometimes accidentally serve as metaphors for uncomfortable truths. Frankly, on the basis of resume and record alone, the democratic presidential candidate this year is a bit of a foreign policy/national security lightweight. That a belated, first time international tour to troubled and dangerous conflict zones might highlight a certain lack of gravitas was entirely predictable. Obama’s advisors might have thought of this last year. Done now, it seemed like a campaign afterthought, a necessary but risky gesture.
I detect a new pattern emerging in the polls, one that suggests that the thin man might have thinning support among the persuadable middle rank of potential voters. Again I find the daily tracking polls by the Scott Rasmussen group are the most balanced, astute and revealing.
Go to Rasmussen at http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll .
JBG
July 22 - Policy Footnote: The single most important meeting on Obama’s current trip is with General Petraeus, who by all responsible players in DC is regarded as the genius who rescued Iraq and is now acknowledged by centrist democrats as highly credible. To the extent that Senator Obama actually listens to the general and adjusts not only his rhetoric but his actual policy approach, the country and his campaign will be better for it.
Comments
Nixon "won" the debates with JFK ... on the radio. Images matter, for better or worse...
JBG
Remember Cesare Lombroso and his theory?
I don't think we should make our choice of presidential candidate based on his appearance.
Posted by: Tanya | July 21, 2008 08:21 AM
Excellent point, ME. My comments --
Re Lincoln -- Gravitas.
Re: OB. I'm talking about polls and appearances and asking about trends in public perceptions.
I hope we're all agreed that:
(a) OB is obviously a fine person;
(b) but so is JM;
(c) that this is not an image contest - at least for the most discerning voters;
(d) that foreign policy experience and national security credentials are not irrelevant;
(e) and that actual experience of the type relevant to (d) is NOT best acquired during one's actual campaign for office.
JBG
A. Lincoln was also a tall, thin man who stood shoulders above his generals and soldiers when visiting battle fields. What made him presidential?
Posted by: e.m. easterly | July 21, 2008 01:21 PM
Reply to below: Anyone who thinks that Senator McCain's credentials are capsulized in a POW camp has not perused the last several decades in his career. BTW, I was not making an endorsement in this post, just a cautionary observation about how any political figure about little is known first tends to attract our hopes, projections and expectations, but later inevitably becomes less adored.
It remains true that, with OB, we can only hope because he is a first term senator with charismatic rhetorical skills and a message that people want to hear, but a thin track record. (I say this noting that I would not discount hope based on an authentic, well informed gut instinct).
JBG
...with all due respect to JM, "foreign policy experience and national security credentials are not acquired" at POW camp either.
Posted by: tanya | July 21, 2008 03:09 PM