{Not so} Bad News For Barack - Updated
→The Human Conspiracy Blog: http://www.jaygaskill.com/blog3
→The Policy Think Site: http://www.jaygaskill.com
All contents, unless otherwise indicated are
Copyright © 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 by Jay B. Gaskill
Please contact Jay B. Gaskill, attorney at law, via e mail at law@jaygaskill.com
TUESDAY
Rasmussen now shows a strong Obama gain, now leading McCain by 5%. Go to http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Sunday….
BAD NEWS FOR BARACK
1. Governor Sarah Palin has re-energized the GOP base like no other move McCain could have taken.
This is one of the Democrats’ worst fears because Obama is increasing looking like a more inspirational version of Dukakis, who looked good to them at convention time but hollow by Halloween.
2. The Obama Bounce is gone, according to Rasmussen.
Pull quote:
“Sunday, August 31, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday—the day before the Republican National Convention is scheduled to begin—shows Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by three percentage points both with and without leaners. That’s exactly the same edge Obama enjoyed a week ago on the eve of the Democratic National Convention.”
3. McCain, using the public spirited instincts one associates with a good president, has quickly moved to put Hurricane Gustav ahead of his other priorities.
With any other candidate, this would look like showboating, but with Governor Palin at his side and given McCain’s legacy of integrity, he looks (for now at least) more and more like a president in waiting and Senator Obama looks more and more like a rock star with an intense fan base, but lagging in “leader appeal”.
4. If McCain emerges from the nominating convention with a greater bounce than Obama did, the dynamics of the contest will be altered in his favor for several weeks.
Yes, anything can still happen, including a McCain slump. And at this point, McCain is still slightly behind. To recover momentum, Obama needs to engage and, if possible, preempt.
But what we are seeing here, ironically, is an energy gap. At 71, McCain outworked his republican opponents, carrying his own luggage and taking his message to hundreds of town meetings. At 72, McCain is very sharp and quick on his feet and seems to have inexhaustible energy. Obama needs to work much harder in order to overcome the growing impression that he isn’t quite up to the task of running the country in a time of crisis.
Is this more like “Truman vs. Dewey”, “JFK vs. Nixon” or “Reagan vs. Carter”? Or is it “none of the above”?
I suspect that we are witnessing an entirely new game.
Stay tuned.
JBG
