UPDATE -OBAMA'S BOUNCE - ANEMIC or ROBUST?
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Updated 8-30
Rasmussen still shows a modest bounce, post-Palin http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
OBAMA’S BOUNCE – ANEMIC or ROBUST? Updated
Senator Obama’s post convention bounce so far is only 3-4% according to Scott Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll released today (46/43) measured from an earlier tie, or a 4% bounce when the self-described “leaners” are included. [See the update above.]
Rasmussen: “Obama’s four-point lead reported on Friday morning is based on polling data collected Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights. Virtually all of the interviews were completed before Obama’s acceptance speech and it is impossible to tell what will happen next. Normally, the bounce would continue for a few days. But, this year, with McCain’s VP announcement and the Republican convention happening so quickly, we are in uncharted territory.”
Link to Rassmussen: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/ .
I prefer the Rasmussen numbers because they tend not to exaggerate swings in opinion and have, in recent history, been better at predicting actual electoral behavior. But I note that Gallop has Obama ahead 49/41, an 8 point bounce from the pre-convention 45/45 tie. Link to Gallup. http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx
Zogby is another excellent poll, but as of noon Pacific, had released no “bounce” numbers. Go to http://www.zogby.com/ .
Recall that John Kerry’s post convention bounce in 2002 was reportedly only 4% (50/44) from an earlier small lead. Senator Kerry’s bounce was described as “anemic” at the time.
The Obama’s acceptance speech was watched by 12-14 million more than the 26 million viewers who watched Hillary’s speech, which was several million more than those who watched Kerry’s speech in 2002. Note that the convention audience at its peak still represented a fraction of total viewership. Gone are the days when a single event can rivet the entire nation’s attention. On the other hand, televised events have a vital afterlife on YouTube which is a second and interesting battleground where both candidates are presently represented by clips, adds and hit pieces.
Enter The Sarah Palin Factor
It is too early to assess the impact of McCain’s Friday choice of Alaska Governor, Sarah Palin, a mother of five with strong anti-corruption credentials whose relevant experience level is at least comparable to Obama’s (because hers is executive), while her name recognition is low at the moment.
Will she attract the disgruntled women voters who intended to support Hillary? Though more conservative than Mrs. Clinton, Governor Palin is attractive, young (44) and an effective speaker. Governor Palin by all accounts is a tough competitor, not to be underestimated. As she becomes better known to the voters, I am certain that she will prove an asset to the McCain ticket, because her real role is not running against Senator Biden, just adding more luster to the McCain vs. Obama contest. More on Palin at these links:http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/sarah_palin_unknown_nationally_popular_in_alaska and http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/politics/5974684.html and http://gov.state.ak.us/bio.php .
Key democrats were nervous and unsettled about Obama’s candidacy going into the convention. Coming out, they are still nervous and at least “concerned”. It may be dawning on the movers and shakers of the democratic party that their candidate is not running against George Bush. This is something that candidate McCain can be expected to make increasingly evident.
What to watch: If within two days following the end of the Republican Convention, Senator Obama’s bounce is gone, you can assume that key democrats will have gone from “unsettled” or “concerned” to actually worried.
The GOP convention is Monday through Thursday, September 1-4, unless the incoming, New Orleans aimed hurricane causes a delay….
The election is November 4.
Comments
Good comments, as always. But the takeaway is "we'll see..."
I'd add that only a small percentage of the "leaners" need be moved by the Palin dynamic to affect the election.
I have no clear sense yet about how this race will come out, but my gut instinct, having seen Palin in action, is that her addition to the GOP ticket is a net plus for mcCain, while Biden's addition (note I actually like Biden) is a net -0- for Obama.
JBG
Hi again, Jay,
I think I can speak for many women in Ms. Palin's generation (she is my contemporary, as is Obama) that may see her as someone who just may alienate both sides of the Gender Gap:
Feminists will wonder how she can reconcile her large family (and new baby) with running a (small) state, much less a significant national office "one heartbeat away" from the leader of the most powerful nation on earth.
They know that you can't have it all as a woman with a career - something has to give. In this case, it's obviously Mrs. Palin's children. Most of us working mothers will not relate to her at all. Feminists will bristle at her platforms of fundamentalism, pro-life, anti-environment, and pro-gun (although some of us gals don't have a problem with gun ownership, especially in the wilds of Alaska).
On the other side, I know that the Dr. Laura school of motherhood (to which many of my Christian women friends subscribe) might be impressed with Palin's values, but appalled by her willingness to abandon her children for an ambitious job like governer, and would seriously question her "walk" if she thinks that it's ok for her to have the Village raise the special needs child so she can globe trot and learn how to govern a country by the seat of her pantsuit.
Nope. In my opinion, it won't fly, Jay.
I never much liked Hillary, although I grudgingly respect her talents and experience, but Palin can't carry Hill's Earth Shoe across the street at this point. I doubt Palin will attract many Hillary supporters.
But, we'll see!
Posted by: loretta | August 31, 2008 07:20 AM