OBAMA'S POLITICAL WEAKNESS
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MONDAY, AUGUST 4, 2008
OBAMA’S POLITICAL WEAKNESS
McCain has a slight lead over Obama in the polls. For details, go to the Rasmussen Report at http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll .
This may be the beginning of the ‘North Eastern liberal’ problem for the democrats, the jinx that sank Mr. Kerry and every other democratic presidential nominee for whom that label could be applied since JFK. It should be remembered that President Kennedy’s campaign was thematically closer to McCain’s – he attacked from the right on foreign policy, if we are permitted to adjust for the context.
How could this be? There is a persistent cultural and ideological disconnect between the Democratic Party’s activist core and the rest of the party. A snapshot of the democratic majority in the House and Senate’s real composition is very revealing.
The House “Blue Dogs” are not “Obama-crats”.
Conservative and moderate democrats in the House of Representatives self identify as Blue Dog Democrats. The origin of the Blue Dog term is obscure but my favorite story is that in recent years the conservatives in the party (originally Yellow Dogs) were so frozen out of the mainstream democratic agenda that they turned blue. Most of the current crop of blues was elected from districts that voted for President Bush. The democratic majority in the House is 233 to 202, but there are 39 self-acknowledged Blue Dogs. This produces a House that is more conservative than Senator Obama 241 to 194.
I believe that the House more nearly reflects the core political attitude of the country than the Obama candidacy.
The “New Democrat Coalition” is the mirror Blue Dog group in the US Senate. It was founded in 2000 by a group of Senators that included Lieberman and Bayh (who have rarely voted with the junior senator from Illinois) and reportedly now includes 20 members. The nominal Democratic majority in the Senate was 51-49 but when adjusted for its NDC members, the Senate is probably more conservative than Obama by 69 to 31.
This is why Obama is trying to tack sharply to the center. But his weakening poll numbers suggest that Mr. Obama’s reincarnation as a moderate to conservative democrat is not taking.
I suspect that Hillary is not disappointed.
JBG
A Roster of Blue Dogs in the House:
Congressman Mike Arcuri
New York, 24th District
Congresswoman Melissa Bean
Illinois, 8th District
Congressman Dan Boren
Oklahoma, 2nd District
Congressman Dennis Cardoza
California, 18th District
Congressman Jim Cooper
Tennessee, 5th District
Congressman Lincoln Davis
Tennessee, 4th District
Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords
Arizona, 8th District
Congresswoman Jane Harman
California, 36th District
Congressman Tim Holden
Pennsylvania, 17th District
Congressman Tim Mahoney
Florida, 16th District
Congressman Mike McIntyre
North Carolina, 7th District
Congressman Dennis Moore
Kansas, 3rd District
Congressman Earl Pomeroy
North Dakota, At-Large
Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez
California, 47th District
Congressman Heath Shuler
North Carolina, 11th District
Congressman Gene Taylor
Mississippi, 4th District
Congressman Joe Baca
California, 43rd District
Congressman Marion Berry
Arkansas, 1st District
Congressman Leonard Boswell
Iowa, 3rd District
Congressman Christopher Carney
Pennsylvania, 10th District
Congressman Jim Costa
California, 20th District
Congressman Joe Donnelly
Indiana, 2nd District
Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand
New York, 20th District
Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
South Dakota, At-Large
Congressman Jim Marshall
Georgia, 3rd District
Congressman Charlie Melancon
Louisiana, 3rd District
Congressman Patrick Murphy
Pennsylvania, 8th District
Congressman Mike Ross
Arkansas, 4th District
Congressman Adam Schiff
California, 29th District
Congressman Zack Space
Ohio, 18th District
Congressman Mike Thompson
California, 1st District
Congressman Charlie Wilson
Ohio, 6th District
Congressman John Barrow
Georgia, 12th District
Congressman Sanford Bishop
Georgia, 2nd District
Congressman Allen Boyd
Florida, 2nd District
Congressman Ben Chandler
Kentucky, 6th District
Congressman Bud Cramer
Alabama, 5th District
Congressman Brad Ellsworth
Indiana, 8th District
Congressman Bart Gordon
Tennessee, 6th District
Congressman Baron Hill
Indiana, 9th District
Congressman Nick Lampson
Texas, 22nd District
Congressman Jim Matheson
Utah, 2nd District
Congressman Mike Michaud
Maine, 2nd District
Congressman Collin Peterson
Minnesota, 7th District
Congressman John Salazar
Colorado, 3rd District
Congressman David Scott
Georgia, 13th District
Congressman John Tanner
Tennessee, 8th District
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