FIVE LESSONS OF THE IRAQI WAR
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THE FIVE IRAQ WAR LESSONS (SO FAR)
The Powell Doctrine Meets The Real world
Since I posted this piece in 2007, General David Petraeus (http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=23&Itemid=16 ) has essentially rescued the administration from failure in Iraq, a prospect that, in May of 2007, I described as a “jury is out” situation. Reasonable observers now find it difficult to deny that Iraq is a different country than the “thugocracy” ruled by Saddam Hussein of recent memory and that it is behaving very much like the sovereign, quasi-democratic country (with all the attendant warts) that was a signal motivating object of the whole exercise in the beginning. It is now crystal clear that this democratic experiment in the Middle East will probably survive unless we abandon it.
My assertion that “Saddam lied and his people died” has been amply corroborated by subsequent information, for example his own private statements to an interpreter during his trial.
Link: http://www.fbi.gov/page2/jan08/piro012808.html .
Think for a minute about the Powell Doctrine – Don’t get into a war unless you have overwhelming force – the resources needed to win decisively plus a margin for error – and always have a clear strategy to get out when the time comes.
This is a general officer’s utopian dream for all “wars of choice”. It is brilliant wisdom, but the kind that rarely applies in the real world. All too often, wars are thrust upon us.
Imagine coming to FDR after the destruction of the Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor, and discussing a strategy for getting out of Japan after an unconditional surrender. The atomic bomb was a science fiction fantasy; the US was in the grip of a deep economic depression; and the navy had to be rebuilt, virtually from scratch, while Hitler and Tojo moved decisively to conquer the world.
A Bush Bungle?
Was the Iraq effort bungled? That depends on the answer to three questions:
[You will need to read the entire piece for this part.]
And the Five Lessons?
1. When you fly something under the radar it always surfaces at an awkward time.
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JBG
