RED FLAGS - Why the US - Russia Arms Treaty may Not Be Ratified
"The President shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur."
Why the US-Russian Nuclear Arms Treaty May Not Be Ratified
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No reasonable person would contend that the US really needs its entire strategic nuclear arsenal. On the face of it, a force reduction treaty viv a vis the Russian Republic looks like a good idea. But the provisions of the treaty signed yesterday by Presidents Barak Obama and Dmitry Medvedev also constrain other national security capabilities and measures as they might affect, say, a crisis in the Middle East or in the Korean Peninsula or in the Taiwan Strait.
Given the sorry state of current Russian military strategic capability, we can reasonably ask: Is not this treaty, in essence and practical effect, a unilateral disarmament exercise by the US dressed up as a bilateral treaty?
You can read the full text of the treaty: I have included some relevant treaty language below and a link to the full text.
However the last question is ultimately answered, this treaty may be “just” between the US and Russia but its operative effects degrade our ability to deter and meet threats from third party players, who are watching and hoping as we tie our hands.
Limits on Aircraft
Among the red flags that leap off the page at first reading. There are limitations on the size, replacement and basing of our so called “heavy bomber” fleet.
“Each Party shall reduce and limit its ... heavy bomber nuclear armaments, so that ... the aggregate numbers... do not exceed:
“(c) 800, for deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, deployed and non-deployed SLBM launchers, and deployed and non-deployed heavy bombers.
“(c) Existing types of heavy bombers ... for the United States of America... the B-52G, B-
52H, B-IB, and B-2A....
Note:
http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/man/uswpns/air/bombers/b1b.html
“The B-1B is a multi-role, long-range bomber, capable of flying intercontinental missions without refueling, then penetrating present and predicted sophisticated enemy defenses. It can perform a variety of missions, including that of a conventional weapons carrier for theater operations. Through 1991, the B-1 was dedicated to the nuclear deterrence role as part of the single integrated operational plan (SIOP)”
“The B-1B's electronic jamming equipment, infrared countermeasures, radar location and warning systems complement its low-radar cross-section and form an integrated defense system for the aircraft.”
Note that the Stealth bomber is included:
http://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/b2/
“The B-2 is a low-observable, strategic, long-range, heavy bomber capable of penetrating sophisticated and dense air-defense shields. It is capable of all-altitude attack missions up to 50,000ft, with a range of more than 6,000nm unrefuelled and over 10,000nm with one refueling, giving it the ability to fly to any point in the world within hours.
“Its distinctive profile comes from the unique 'flying wing' construction. The leading edges of the wings are angled at 33° and the trailing edge has a double-W shape. It is manufactured at the Northrop Grumman facilities in Pico Rivera and Palmdale in California.”
Does this mean that we would have a single-basket aggregate limit for all designated missile launchers and “heavy” bombers of 800, such that our bomber aircraft inventory would be limited to the sum of 800 minus our launcher inventory?
It is clear from other treaty language that the restrictions apply to all such weapon-carrying aircraft, including planes carrying low yield tactical bombs and bunker-busting bombs so long as they are nuclear.
Basing Restrictions
Basing restrictions for US listed bombers are significant under this treaty, and include:
(a) No joint basing with nuclear missiles;
(b) No deployment at all unless on a US Base;
(c) No strategic weapons deployment (planes included) outside US territory.
Test Aircraft Limits
Should we want to develop new planes or test replacements, then note this treaty restriction:
“Each Party shall limit the number of test heavy bombers to no more than ten.”
News reports tell us that “U.S.-Russia arms treaty to face GOP scrutiny in Senate”
http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/04/08/start.treaty.senate/index.html . Let’s hope so.
Ratification is by no means a done deal, particularly in light of the residual distrust of the president engendered by the heath care juggernaut, his hostility to Israel and over-conciliatory rhetoric on Iran.
Sixty seven votes will be needed.
Clause 2: This Constitution, and the Laws of the United States which shall be made in Pursuance thereof; and all Treaties made, or which shall be made, under the Authority of the United States, shall be the supreme Law of the Land; and the Judges in every State shall be bound thereby, any Thing in the Constitution or Laws of any State to the Contrary notwithstanding.
Stay tuned.
JBG
[][][]
TREATY BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ON MEASURES FOR THE FURTHER REDUCTION AND LIMITATION OF STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE ARMS
Full text at:
http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/140035.pdf
Some Highlights
Article II
1. Each Party shall reduce and limit its ICBMs and ICBM launchers, SLBMs and SLBM launchers, heavy bombers, ICBM warheads, SLBM warheads, and heavy bomber nuclear armaments, so that seven years after entry into force of this Treaty and thereafter, the aggregate numbers, as counted in accordance with Article III of this Treaty, do not exceed:
(a) 700, for deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs, and deployed
heavy bombers;
(b) 1550, for warheads on deployed ICBMs, warheads on
deployed SLBMs, and nuclear warheads counted for deployed
heavy bombers;
(c) 800, for deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, deployed and non-deployed SLBM launchers, and deployed and non-deployed heavy bombers.
(c) Existing types of heavy bombers are:
(i) for the United States of America, the B-52G, B-
52H, B-IB, and B-2A;
[][][]
Article IV
1. Each Party shall base:
(a) deployed launchers of ICBMs only at ICBM bases;
(b) deployed heavy bombers only at air bases.
[]
7. Each Party shall limit the number of test heavy bombers to no more than ten.
8. Each Party shall base test heavy bombers only at heavy bomber flight test centers. Non-deployed heavy bombers other than test heavy bombers shall be located only at repair facilities or production facilities for heavy bombers.
9. Each Party shall not carry out at an air base joint basing of heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments and heavy bombers equipped for non-nuclear armaments, unless otherwise agreed by the Parties.
[][][]
Article XIII
To ensure the viability and effectiveness of this Treaty, each Party shall not assume any international obligations or undertakings that would conflict with its provisions. The Parties shall not transfer strategic offensive arms subject to this Treaty to third parties. The Parties shall hold consultations within the framework of the Bilateral Consultative Commission in order to resolve any ambiguities that may arise in this regard. This provision shall not apply to any patterns of cooperation, including obligations, in the area of strategic offensive arms, existing at the time of signature of this Treaty, between a Party and a third State.
[][][]
11. Strategic offensive arms subject to this Treaty shall not be based outside the national territory of each Party. The obligations provided for in this paragraph shall not affect the Parties' rights in accordance with generally recognized principles and rules of international law relating to the passage of submarines or flights of aircraft, or relating to visits of submarines to ports of third States. Heavy bombers may be temporarily located outside the national territory, notification of which shall be provided in accordance with Part Four of the Protocol to this Treaty.
2. This Treaty shall remain in force for 10 years unless it is superseded earlier by a subsequent agreement on the reduction and limitation of strategic offensive arms. If either Party raises the issue of extension of this Treaty, the Parties shall jointly consider the matter. If the Parties decide to extend this Treaty, it will be extended for a period of no more than five years unless it is superseded earlier by a subsequent agreement on the reduction and limitation of strategic offensive arms.
3. Each Party shall, in exercising its national sovereignty, have the right to withdraw from this Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events related to the subject matter of this Treaty have jeopardized its supreme interests. It shall give notice of its decision to the other Party. Such notice shall contain a statement of the extraordinary events the notifying Party regards as having jeopardized its supreme interests.
This Treaty shall terminate three months from the date of receipt by the other Party of the aforementioned notice, unless the notice specifies a later date.
